So, after playing the multi-stage version of this map a few times, something interesting has started to crop up - the second stage seems less fun and less balanced than it was in previous versions. Why?
After some discussion and some light number crunching, I'm discovering that this map may be falling victim to "survivorship bias": basically, data can be skewed when your data is only counting the "survivors" and doesn't count scenarios where no data is returned. In this case, we aren't getting the data on how teams perform on Stage 2 when Red wins on Stage 1.
Why is this a problem? Each stage was balanced
individually around a 50% win rate, give or take. When Stage 2 was tested in isolation, this was including the scenarios where teams that would lose Stage 1 were still playing Stage 2. The
actual win rate on Stage 2 is going to be much higher than 50%, since the only Blue teams who will play on Stage 2 are the same teams who already beat the 50% odds of winning Stage 1.
Part of this issue is also being a bit exaggerated because Stage 1 seems to have become harder over time as players learn how to better play defense (or perhaps are forgetting how to attack...), and the win rate for the past two betas is more like 33% (it was sometimes around 66% in alpha). This means that the teams who get to Stage 2 are
even better and it steamrolls that much harder for a ~60% win rate. Not great when the Stage 2 win rate is about double that of Stage 1. Even if Stage 2 is harder in isolated testing, it doesn't feel that way for anyone actually playing the game.
So, I'm going to be doing a few things:
- Test Stage 2 on its own to make sure it ever played well and I'm not just insane.
- Test Stage 1 on its own with layout changes to help make it easier for Blue to win. I'm going to aim for a 66% - 75% win rate. Both points need tweaks.
- Once Stage 1 is where I want it, test both stages together and make Stage 2 balance changes as necessary.
Hopefully this doesn't amount to a lot of actual labor on my end, just a lot of watching, thinking, and making small updates. Most of the work here has already done and I have a solid core for a map, but I'm not happy with it yet.