I said it averages out to about 1/24. Since the other guy has just as much chance of being dead as you do, and has equal chance of being killed/beaten to the punch by a faster mover, those things don't really make a difference in the long run, only in the short term.
All of the things you mention afflict the other person too, and since there are definitely things that move faster than scouts, even not playing as scout won't skew your chances that heavily.
4 hours for a 65% chance? Because there are things eating into that time like map load time and humiliation, it basically means flip a coin every 4 hours, if it's heads you've got a gift.
That's pretty damn unlikely.